Northern Ireland — 2022 Election & Tension: A Simple Overview

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7 min readMay 19, 2022

The Assembly Chamber in Northern Ireland from above — **The Northern Ireland Assembly.** *Credit:* *https://flic.kr/p/cktxqE*

It’s been a busy couple of weeks in UK politics with local elections in England, Wales and Scotland, an ongoing cost-of-living crisis and (more) drama regarding potential Covid rule-breaking from England’s political leaders…

Amongst all of this, you could be forgiven for missing a historic moment in Northern Ireland, with Sinn Féin winning the largest number of seats in the Assembly for the first time.

But if you’re wondering why this is so significant and what this result means: you’re not alone. The politics of Northern Ireland are unique and its current situation is far from straightforward.

What happened in the election?

Sinn Féin secured 27 of the 90 seats available making it the largest party in Northern Ireland. It was closely followed by the party who have dominated for the previous two decades, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Another extraordinary result was Alliance — a centrist party — which gained 9 seats compared to the 2017 election and established itself as the ‘third choice’. (1, 2).

In recent years, the DUP has consistently remained the largest party in Northern Ireland, with about 30% of the first-preference votes. However, it saw its vote share drop significantly this time around whilst other parties took more than ever before.

What do the main parties stand for?

Political parties here are typically divided by their stance on whether Northern Ireland should remain part of the United Kingdom (unionism) or whether it should become part of a ‘united Ireland’ with the Republic of Ireland (nationalism).

Sinn Féin is the leading nationalist party that believes Ireland should become one united country. The DUP, in contrast, wants Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK (3).

The Alliance party is slightly different — it doesn’t align itself strongly as unionist or nationalist but occupies a more neutral position whilst campaigning for change in the way Northern Ireland is governed (4).

For many in Northern Ireland, however, the issue of unionism vs nationalism took a backseat in this election and the ‘cost-of-living crisis’ took centre stage as the most important issue. This was reflected in the way the parties campaigned, with all three of the major parties promising to tackle the crisis as well as cut health service waiting lists and boost the economy (5).

However, making rapid change won’t be easy…

How did the history of conflict in NI lead to the ‘power-sharing’ system in place today?

Most people will have heard of the ‘Troubles’, a period of conflict in Northern Ireland which lasted about thirty years, from the late to 1960s with a significant reduction in violence coming in 1998.

The conflict took place primarily between two groups: Protestant unionists who wanted Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom, and Roman Catholic nationalists (republicans), who wanted Northern Ireland to unite as a nation with the Republic of Ireland. The tensions between these two populations were characterised by deep-rooted cultural and political differences.

These came to a head in the ‘Troubles’ which saw years of violence between the nationalist IRA (Irish Republican Army) and paramilitary unionist forces, who regarded the IRA’s actions as terrorism, as well as involvement from the British Army, Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC), and Ulster Defence Regiment, whose stated purpose were to act as peacekeepers.

It should be noted that for a long time, Sinn Féin was widely considered the ‘political wing’ of the IRA — a past which isn’t easy to distance itself from, even today. However, in the early 1990s, the party emphasised its separation from the IRA and looked to achieve its aims through peaceful political means (6, 7).

Overall, over 3,500 people were killed and tens of thousands were wounded or injured in the fighting and bombings (8, 9).

The ‘end’ of the Troubles is largely accepted to have been brought about by the Good Friday agreement which was signed in 1998.

Part of this agreement was a system of power-sharing, designed to try and ensure peace and stability. This system means that both unionists and nationalists must be in power. For decisions to be made it requires the agreement and cooperation of both unionists and nationalists.

The clearest example of this is the roles of First Minister and Deputy First Minister. These two roles have identical authority and power and must always have one nationalist and one unionist occupying them. The party that wins the largest number of seats occupies the First Minister role, so this position has more prestige — and up until this election was held by the leader of the DUP (9, 10).

Now, however, it is held by Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill. And for Northern Ireland’s executive to be able to function — and start making decisions to tackle the cost-of-living crisis — it requires the DUP’s leader Jeffery Donaldson to agree to take the position of Deputy First Minister and work with Sinn Féin.

But there’s a problem with this.

The DUP leader says he will not lead his party back into power and allow the formation of an Executive until the Northern Ireland Protocol is removed (11). This leaves Northern Ireland in a state of relative limbo.

**DUP Leader Jeffery Donaldson.** Credit: https://www.flickr.com/photos/dupphotos/15911284026/

What is the Northern Ireland Protocol?

This protocol is part of Britain’s 2019 Brexit Deal with the European Union (EU) to allow goods to travel between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland without needing paperwork and checks.

Prior to Brexit, this was no problem because both Northern Ireland and the Republic were part of the EU, so goods could flow between them easily. However, once Northern Ireland left the EU with the rest of the UK, this created a problem.

To try and work around this problem, a deal was negotiated which is now part of international law. It creates a border between England, Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland, meaning goods between these countries require additional checks whilst allowing an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (12, 13).

Unionists, such as the DUP, oppose the fact that the protocol creates a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. They argue that this could make it more likely that Northern Ireland leaves the UK. They are demanding changes to the protocol before they from an Executive (12, 13).

This leaves the UK government in a sticky situation.

Downing Street could choose to change or even remove the Northern Ireland protocol, with Michael Gove stating earlier this week that “no option was off the table”. However, doing this risks breaking international law and agreements made with the EU. Many believe this could lead to a ‘trade war’ and an escalation of tensions with them. There are also concerns that changing the Northern Ireland protocol could risk further turbulence in Northern Ireland and damage the UK’s international reputation (12, 13).

More recently, prime minister Boris Johnson has played down threats of significant changes to the protocol — instead focussing on the need for all parties to come together and form an Executive as the number one priority (14).

So, will Northern Ireland leave the UK?

It is not easy to be certain about anything in an era when international politics can change very quickly. Some believe that Sinn Féin’s victory puts the prospects of Northern Ireland leaving the UK closer, and with the party also performing strongly in the Republic of Ireland, it is feasible that they could be the leading party in both countries by 2025 when the next Irish election is due.

However, polls on the unification of Ireland or on Northern Ireland leaving the UK are unlikely to happen soon. The Good Friday agreement outlines that a border poll should occur if “at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland” (14). There is no clear cut way of measuring this.

A further complicating factor is that the agreement requires consent for a united Ireland must be given by Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland “concurrently” — i.e. it would require border polls in both countries at the same time. Given the polarising nature of nationalist vs unionist politics, any referendum or vote could trigger a violent backlash, which has largely been avoided since the Good Friday Agreement.

Right now, polling indicates that the majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote to remain part of the UK if there was a referendum. This suggests that Sinn Féin’s success in this election may have largely been driven by factors other than nationalist vs unionist politics: either because people believe they could better deal with the cost-of-living crisis or as a protest vote against the DUP (7, 15).

TL;DR — The Northern Ireland elections delivered a historic result with nationalist party Sinn Féin winning for the first time but the country remains in limbo due to its power-sharing agreement, which the DUP refuse to join until their demands about the Northern Ireland protocol are met. The situation in Northern Ireland is complex, but right now it is the ordinary people in the country who will suffer from an Executive unable to make decisions to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.

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