Getting Hot in Here: the UK’s Heatwave Emergency
We Brits love to moan about the weather. Complaining about it being too cold, too rainy, too wet, too muggy or too hot is practically a national pastime.
Except, if you feel like things might be just a tad too warm — you’re not being unreasonable.
The Met Office has issued the first ever Red warning for exceptional heat which will cover Monday 18th and Tuesday 19th July for parts of England (1). They predict temperatures could reach 40°C.
The current record high temperature in the UK is 38.7°C which was recorded in 2019 but it is expected this will be broken next week.
At this level, illness and death may occur among the fit and healthly, not just in high-risk groups.
The idea of record temperatures could sound appealing — after all, we travel to countries around the world seeking out some serious holiday heat. However, these temperatures come with a serious health warning. In 2020, around 2,500 people were estimated to have died during heatwaves (2).
The Met Office describe this upcoming heatwave like this:
“so severe and/or prolonged that its effects extend outside the health and social care system. At this level, illness and death may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups” (3)
There are other effects too. The RAC warn that they expecting a potential of over 1,000 additional car breakdowns than would be normally expected at this time of year due to the heat (4).
So what can we do to protect ourselves and look after others? The Met Office issues the following guidance on their website:
Advice: Look out for others, especially older people, young children and babies and those with underlying health conditions. Close curtains on rooms that face the sun to keep indoor spaces cooler and remember it may be cooler outdoors than indoors. Drink plenty of fluids and avoid excess alcohol, dress appropriately for the weather and slow down when it is hot. Be on the lookout for signs of heat-related illness. Cool your skin with water, slow down and drink water. Call NHS 111 or in an emergency dial 999 (3).
“Climate change has already influenced the likelihood of temperature extremes in the UK…the likelihood of extremely hot days in the UK has been increasing and will continue to do so”
So, how much is climate change responsible for the extreme temperatures we are seeing?
Whilst, it is difficult to tie individual extreme weather events to global climate change, there has been widespread evidence to show that climate change increases the likelihood of events such as high temperatures (5). Of course, extreme heat events can occur naturally due to changes in weather patterns however, it is important to recognise that human influence, through increased greenhouse gas emissions makes it more likely these events will occur more often, for longer and with greater intensity (2).
If you want a more full understanding of the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events — we wrote about it here last year.
Climate scientist Dr Christidis explains:
“In a recent study we found that the likelihood of extremely hot days in the UK has been increasing and will continue to do so during the course of the century, with the most extreme temperatures expected to be observed in the southeast of England.
“Climate change has already influenced the likelihood of temperature extremes in the UK. The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence”
Are we ready for these extreme temperatures in the UK?
Not really.
Back in 2020, when the UK was experiencing a similar run of high temperatures, Kathryn Brown from the Climate Change Committee said:
“The recent heatwave shows how ill-suited the current UK building stock is to hot weather, and the risk that overheating poses to us all… yet there is still no legal requirement to ensure homes, hospitals, schools or care homes are designed for the current or future climate. This urgently needs to change”
In 2021, the Independent Assessment of UK Climate Change Risk was published, totalling over 1,500 pages of evidence and analysis. Worryingly, the report concluded that “the gap between the level of risk we face and the level of adaptation underway has widened… action has failed to keep pace with the worsening reality of climate risk” (6).
However, it says that the UK does have the capacity and resources to deal with these threats, but that we must act now, rather than wait for the consequences. This latter approach will be more expensive and fail to protect people as effectively.
“Adaptation action has failed to keep pace with the worsening reality of climate risk”
The report identifies eight risk areas which are most urgently needed to deal with the risks posed by climate change including the risks to health and well-being from increased exposure to heat in houses and other buildings; risks to crops and livestock; and risks to diversity and viability of habitats.
So, as temperatures soar next week, remember to look after yourself and others by following the advice to keep hydrated and safe. But also, recognise that these events will only become more common due to the risks of climate change, a threat we need to urgently respond to now, and in the years ahead.
TL;DR → the UK is bracing itself for a health-warning inducing heatwave next week with temperatures expected to reach up to 40 degrees. Climate change is making these extreme events more likely and the UK’s infrastructure is not prepared for the most urgent of these risks.
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