A Tale of Two Pandemics: How Covid-19 is Hitting Poorer Countries Hard

Photo by Fusion Medical Animation on Unsplash

In February last year, the World Health Organisation (WHO) warned the world that it may be at least 18 months before a Covid vaccine was available. Turns out, that was a rather gloomy prediction — fast forward to now and we’ve got several, highly-effective vaccines that have been rolled out across the world. At the time of writing, 3 billion individual doses have been given out and almost 25% of people globally have been jabbed at least once (1).

Whilst Covid-19 remains a great challenge, the world seems to be doing a pretty good job in fighting back. With more people being vaccinated every day, there truly is light at the end of the tunnel.

At least that’s the story for rich countries. In poorer nations, things are vastly different.

How have vaccines been distributed around the world?

In short — the vast majority of vaccines have gone to rich countries.

Right now, less than 1% of people in low-income countries have received a single jab (1).

The truth is almost all of the world’s vaccine supply has been taken by high-income countries, with poorer nations left to feed off scraps.

The two graphics below really put these shocking statistics into perspective.

Around 40% of people in North America and Europe have had a Covid-19 vaccine, whilst just 2.5% of people in Africa have got a jab (2)

This shows how the wealthier a country is, the more vaccinations relative to its population that it has. Rich countries like the US and Canada have plenty, whilst poorer countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia have very little (2).

How important are vaccines?

Vaccines are vital in preventing people who catch Covid-19 from needing hospital treatment or dying. That’s because not only do they make it less likely that you’ll catch or pass on the virus (driving down case numbers) but they are highly effective at protecting you from serious disease if you do.

It is estimated that nearly 12,000 lives have been saved in England alone thanks to Covid-19 vaccines (3).

To make that even clearer see the table below: although the UK has the 4th highest number of new cases in the world — it’s deaths are still pretty low (4). That’s largely due to the huge vaccine rollout.

And here’s another chart which demonstrates how vaccines change the game:

In the latest wave, although cases are faster than previously, hospitalisations and deaths are rising more slowly. Image Credit: The Guardian

Without vaccines, lower-income countries risk being overwhelmed by a third wave of Covid-19 which will cause a lot of deaths. In fact, that’s happening in Africa right now, with the WHO’s regional director for Africa warning that this ‘latest surge threatens to be Africa’s worse yet’ (5).

It’s easy to forget exactly what that means. Currently, in the UK we have the highest case numbers we’ve had in months, yet we still are enjoying significant freedoms, able to see friends and family, go out and even travel. This is because most of our vulnerable are vaccinated; even though our cases are rising — hospitalisations and deaths are staying relatively low (6).

Covid-19 has felt like a never-ending struggle. Can you imagine what it would be like if the third wave was just as dangerous as previous ones? If yet more restrictions were needed to bring it under control?

That is the reality of many lower-income countries right now.

What is being done?

Most lower-income countries are relying on COVAX— a scheme designed to distribute vaccines across the globe to all countries in need. You can read more about COVAX here.

The COVAX initiative is the main source of Covid-19 vaccines in many lower-income countries (7)

The system was really designed to help distribute vaccines fairly across the world. In reality, wealthy nations have vaccinated large proportions of their population and will be donating surplus vaccines — i.e. ones which they have bought but no longer need.

Recently the G7 countries (a group of some of the most wealthy countries which include the US and UK) have pledged to donate 1 billion doses over the next year. This is, of course, a very important step for the short-term. However, the WHO director general points out that the race against Covid-19 has hardly been fair saying:

“Many… countries are now facing a surge in cases, and they are facing it without vaccines. We are in the race of our lives, but it’s not a fair race, and most countries have barely left the starting line.” (8)

Campaigners also warn that this is unlikely to be enough — with the WHO saying that 11 billion doses are needed (8).

Can lower-income countries make vaccines for themselves?

There are many reasons why lower-income countries are relying on wealthier nations for vaccines:

1. Almost all of the vaccine production in the world is in middle-income or high-income countries. For example, Africa imports 99% of its vaccines (9).
2. Poorer nations did not have the purchasing power — i.e. they did not have enough money — to secure large orders of vaccines when they became available. This is because when vaccines were in production, different countries put ‘bids’ on buying certain amount of stock. It would be like me or you trying to outbid a millionaire at an auction: it’s never going to happen. So, almost all of the vaccines went to higher-income countries.
3. There is not currently the infrastructure or workforce with the necessary skills to produce vast amount of vaccines in lower-income countries.
4. There is something called Intellectual Property (IP) protection on Covid-19 vaccines. In simple terms, this means that the ‘recipe’ for how you make vaccines is protected. Without it, lower-income nations cannot produce vaccines themselves.

That’s why there are many people calling for an IP waiver. This would mean that lower-income countries would be free to manufacture the vaccines themselves.

Recently the US became the most significant country in the world to back calls for this waiver. However, it is worth noting that this would not be a silver bullet. It is unlikely there would be any significant global increase in production until 2022, and some people believe that a IP waiver may be the wrong way to do things as it could give companies a ‘short-cut’ to technology which has taken a lot of money and time to develop. Some also argue that better routes include boosting vaccine production in wealthy countries and increase the amount donated to lower-income countries. Yet, a vaccine waiver would provide countries with the right to develop their own vaccines without having to worry of legal and financial consequences, and that could be hugely significant with dealing with some of the systemic issues facing lower-income countries (9).

So, there is the tale of two pandemics. Really it is just a single disease — but the way it is affecting wealthy countries is very different to how it is hitting poorer ones. And with the announcement of booster jabs this September in the UK (10), many people may wonder how fair it is that we are getting a third jab before millions of people around the world have received their first.

TL;DR higher-income countries have taken the vast majority of vaccines, with less than 1% of people in lower-income countries who have had even 1 shot. There are plans to get more vaccines across the globe, but the solutions aren’t happening quickly, and certainly not in time for devastating third waves which are happening now.

What can I do?

→ The most simple and effective way you can help is by getting vaccinated yourself and encourage others to get vaccinated too. Vaccines are safe and effective. The sooner we can end the pandemic here, the sooner we can help other countries. To book your Covid-19 vaccine click here.

→ If this topic has got you interested in finding out more then Progressive International, an organisation which aims to ‘unite, organise, and mobilise progressive forces’ across the globe has some great resources.
If you’re feeling keen you could watch their conference about vaccines on YouTube by clicking here. It’s 2.5 hours so you might have to take it in chunks.
If you just want to read a bit more about vaccine internationalism (how vaccines are distributed across the globe) you can find some of their articles by clicking here.

References

1. Covid Vaccinations — Our World in Data
2. The Global Covid-19 Vaccine Gap — The Globe and Mail
3. Nearly 12,000 lives saved by vaccines so far in England — Reuters
4. Coronavirus cases — Worldometer
5. Africa battles new COVID-19 wave hitting faster and harder — AP
6. Cautious optimism with Covid deaths remaining low — Sky News
7. Can COVAX really vaccinate the world? — The Conversation
8. G7 Vaccine promises fail to meet scale of challenge — The BMJ
9. A patent waiver on Covid-19 vaccines — nature